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Real Estate Market & Interest Rate Update: June 2023

Real estate market and interest rate update: at the June 2023 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to not raise the federal funds rate for June (which breaks 10 consecutive increases in the rate). The Fed still has a target range of 5% to 5.25% for the fed funds rate: as of the day of this blog post, the fed funds rate is 5.06% (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds).

What we expect moving forward: two more increases coming by the end of 2023. The FOMC projects that rates could move as high as 5.6% by the end of 2023, which will certainly not be good for the commercial market, which is experiencing immense pressure from both the lack of demand/occupancy and the large interest rate increase over the past two years.

For the real estate market, Case-Shiller, Black Knight, CoreLogic – they’re all saying the same thing: home prices are “almost universally” rising again across the country. If you’re waiting for prices to fall significantly, you could be waiting a very long time indeed. And don’t forget that there’s a very real ‘cost of waiting’ when home prices are moving upward.

We do see some areas being impacted more than others by the interest rate increases but the number of homes for sale (inventory) is so low that supply simply can’t keep up with demand. Cities and states are mandating more aggressive building via new rules and laws, but are running into issues with conservation regulations and some insurers won’t issue insurance coverage due to being in high fire/flood zones.

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